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NGFS Climate Scenarios: Third vintage

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picture of NGFS Scenarios for central banks and supervisors

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The Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) published the third vintage of the climate scenarios along with two accompanying documents, aimed at fostering the integration of climate-related risks into the work of central banks and supervisors, and beyond. The NGFS scenarios were developed in partnership with an academic consortium including the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), the Center for Global Sustainability at the University of Maryland (UMD), Climate Analytics (CA), and the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR).

In this third vintage, the set of climate scenarios have been brought up to date, including the most recent country-level climate commitments made at the COP26 in 2021, and the latest GDP and population pathways. The NGFS scenarios provide a framework to assess and manage climate-related risks, by exploring the transition and physical impacts of climate change, over a long time horizon and under varying assumptions. Additionally, NGFS published a technical analytical document that explores the policy conditionality of the third vintage of the NGFS scenarios and assesses the sensitivity of the results to assumptions related to fiscal and monetary policy. Finally, the NGFS published a guidance note aiming to complement existing climate risk assessment literature by providing central banks and prudential supervisory authorities with a practical framework for assessing physical climate risks with extreme weather events.

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