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Emissions and Energy Impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act

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New paper combines results from 9 leading models to examine key IRA provisions

Economy-wide emissions drop 43 to 48% below 2005 levels by 2035 with accelerated clean energy deployment

CGS Experts

Alicia Zhao, Research Manager, CGS

Haewon McJeon, Associate Research Scholar, CGS

Bistline, J., G. Blanford, M. Brown, D. Burtraw, M. Domeshek, J. Farbes, A. Fawcett, A. Hamilton, J. Jenkins, R. Jones, B. King, H. Kolus, J. Larsen, A. Levin, M. Mahajan, C. Marcy, E. Mayfield, J. McFarland, H. McJeon, R. Orvis, N. Patankar, K. Rennert, C. Roney, N. Roy, G. Schivley, D. Steinberg, N. Victor, S. Wenzel, J. Weyant, R. Wiser, M. Yuan, A. Zhao. (2023) . Emissions and energy impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act. Science 380, 1324-1327.


If goals set under the Paris Agreement are met, the world may hold warming well below 2°C (1); however, parties are not on track to deliver these commitments (2), increasing focus on policy implementation to close the gap between ambition and action. Recently, the US government passed its most prominent piece of climate legislation to date—the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA)—designed to invest in a wide range of programs that, among other provisions, incentivize clean energy and carbon management, encourage electrification and efficiency measures, reduce methane emissions, promote domestic supply chains, and address environmental justice concerns (3). IRA’s scope and complexity make modeling important to understand impacts on emissions and energy systems. We leverage results from nine independent, state-of-the-art models to examine potential implications of key IRA provisions, showing economy-wide emissions reductions between 43 and 48% below 2005 levels by 2035.

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School Authors: Haewon McJeon, Alicia Zhao

Other Authors: John Bistline, Maxwell Brown, Maya Domeshek, Cara Marcy, Nicholas Roy, Geoffrey Blanford, Dallas Burtraw, Jamil Farbes, Allen Fawcett, Anne Hamilton, Jesse Jenkins, Ryan Jones, Ben King, Hannah Kolus, John Larsen, Amanda Levin, Megan Mahajan, Erin Mayfield, James McFarland, Robbie Orvis, Neha Patankar, Kevin Rennert, Sally Robson, Christopher Roney, Ethan Russell, Greg Schivley, Daniel Shawhan, Daniel Steinberg, Nadejda Victor, Shelley Wenzel, John Weyant, Ryan Wiser, Mei Yuan