During this seminar, CGS Faculty Assistant Bradley Phelps, PhD Student Camille Wejnert-Depue, and Assistant Professor Kathleen Kennedy will discuss their analyses to support emissions reductions in the state of Minnesota.
Abstract: Minnesota has committed to reaching net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050, and is currently updating its Climate Action Framework with new policy proposals to meet this goal. In partnership with the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency (MPCA), we developed a set of policy-based scenarios in the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) to support these efforts. We model a “Current Policies Scenario”, and “Potential Policy Pathway” and a “Net-Zero Scenario”, with scenario variations that reflect the changing federal policy environment. Our modeling methodology includes scenario design, representation of potential policies, calibration of near-term dynamics, exogenous assumptions, and post-processing of modeling results to reflect the state’s inventory. The potential policy pathway shows significant decarbonization across all major sectors, particularly in electricity and transportation due to a Clean Electricity Standard and a Clean Fuel Standard, respectively. We also find that while federal policy rollbacks change how the state decarbonizes, strong state policies drive the overall reduction in emissions.