During this session CGS Research Associate Claire Squire will share her research on the intersection of forests, food, and fuel at Indonesia’s National Strategic Project in Merauke, South Papua.
Abstract: Indonesia has long targeted fuel and energy self-sufficiency, and in 2024, to reach these aims, President Joko Widodo promulgated Presidential Regulation Number 40 of 2023, outlining the Indonesian government’s commitment to sugar self-sufficiency and increased bioethanol production, to be achieved through sugarcane food estates. Under this policy, the Indonesian government aims to increase sugarcane production through nationalized plantations in the easternmost region of the country, an area that contains among the most dense remaining extent of tropical rainforest in the world. Using Landsat, SAR, ArcGIS, GCAM, and other tools, we assess ongoing deforestation and potential for land conversion driven by this project, as well as alternative means of improving food and energy security. We also consider local-level project impacts, including implications for indigenous tenure, food security, and air quality. We find that land conversion at this scale would dramatically shift local landscapes and livelihoods, threaten Indonesia’s commitment to becoming a net carbon sink by 2030, and have a negligible impact on reducing fuel imports.