Gidden, M., Joshi, S., Armitage, J.J., Christ, A., Boettcher, M., Brutschin, E., Köberle, A.C., Riahi, K., Schellnhuber, H.J., Schleussner, C., Rogelj, J. (2025). A prudent planetary limit for geologic carbon storage. Nature.
Abstract
Geologically storing carbon is a key strategy for abating emissions from fossil fuels and durably removing carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere. Yet storage potential is not unlimited. Here, we establish a prudent planetary limit of around 1460 (1,290-2,710) Gt of CO2 storage through a risk-based, spatially-explicit analysis of carbon storage in sedimentary basins. We show that only stringent near-term gross emissions reductions can lower the risk of breaching this limit before the year 2200. Fully using geologic storage for carbon removal caps possible global temperature reduction to 0.4-0.7°C (0.35-1.2°C). Countries most robust to our risk assessment are current large-scale extractors of fossil resources. Treating carbon storage as a limited intergenerational resource has deep implications for national mitigation strategies and policy and requires making explicit decisions on priorities for storage use.