Join Dr. Kowan O’Keefe as he discusses the decision-making process of GCAM scenario design with a focus on the climate policy implications of recent federal elections in Canada and the U.S.
Full Session Description: Scenario analysis can be used to understand future opportunities and tradeoffs that may result across different decisions made in the present. At CGS, we often examine scenarios using the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), which is an integrated model of the climate, energy, land, water, and socioeconomic systems. Several considerations are important to constructing a scenario before any comparative modeling analysis is carried out. The focus of this seminar will be on the qualitative elements of scenario design, covering climate policy implications of recent federal elections in Canada and the United States. Additional climate policies will then be examined in the context of scenario design in the Canadian and American contexts. The seminar will conclude with a discussion of how we might design scenarios to examine the implications of selected current affairs topics.
Speaker Bio: Kowan O’Keefe is a postdoctoral research associate at CGS. His research focuses on using integrated assessment modeling to examine the interactions between Canadian climate policy, external forces, and domestic political considerations in pursuit of net zero. Since 2020, he has contributed to several US-focused modeling studies as a member of the US Modeling Team at CGS.
O'Keefe completed his PhD at the University of Maryland School of Public Policy in 2024. His dissertation examined the achievability, prudence and durability of Canada’s net-zero plans. During his doctoral studies, O'Keefe was a Pierre Elliott Trudeau Scholar and a Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada Doctoral Fellow. O'Keefe also holds a bachelor’s degree in chemistry and mathematics from Minot State University and a master’s degree in chemistry from the University of Toronto.