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Econometric modeling of ocean eddy kinetic energy and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation transport with implications for Sustainable Development Goal 14

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Abstract

The United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 14 has emphasized conservation efforts for oceans especially in the wake of climate change. Because sea surface temperatures and sea water turbulence have been increasing, this article modeled the interactive effects of sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations for ocean eddy kinetic energy using 3-year averages of quarterly longitudinal data during 2000–2019 in Northern and Southern hemispheres. The methodological framework tackled issues arising in modeling ocean circulation via partial differential equations and the potential bidirectionality in interrelationships with Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) transport. Random effects models were estimated using a merged database for 64,800 1° × 1° grids, taking in account unobserved heterogeneity and serial correlation in the errors. The main findings were that quarterly sea surface temperatures were significantly higher in 2019 than in 2001 and sea ice concentrations were significantly lower using paired t-tests in the hemispheres; ocean eddy kinetic energy was significantly higher in 2019. Second, sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations had significant interactive effects for ocean eddy kinetic energy. Lastly, AMOC transport data at 35°N showed that ocean eddy kinetic energy was significantly negatively associated with transport. Overall, the empirical results indicate that it is important to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and agricultural and industrial runoffs into the oceans for achieving the Sustainable Development Goal 14.


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